304不銹鋼板價格必將回落
2019-1-15 9:49:18??????點擊:
短(duan)期(qi)(qi)鋼(gang)(gang)價(jia)(jia)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)并不(bu)是需求(qiu)(qiu)驅動(dong),更(geng)多是受(shou)鋼(gang)(gang)坯(pi)及消息(xi)面(mian)的(de)(de)(de)刺(ci)激(ji)所致。所以(yi)需要警惕的(de)(de)(de)是后(hou)期(qi)(qi)行(xing)(xing)情(qing)(qing)走勢(shi),如(ru)果鋼(gang)(gang)坯(pi)及期(qi)(qi)鋼(gang)(gang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)勢(shi)停滯,鋼(gang)(gang)價(jia)(jia)缺乏需求(qiu)(qiu)支撐的(de)(de)(de)弊(bi)端將(jiang)(jiang)再成(cheng)主(zhu)導(dao),304不(bu)銹鋼(gang)(gang)板(ban)(ban)(ban)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)必(bi)將(jiang)(jiang)回(hui)(hui)落,同(tong)時(shi)淡季(ji)不(bu)淡或(huo)(huo)成(cheng)旺(wang)季(ji)不(bu)旺(wang)導(dao)火索,需警惕下(xia)周后(hou)半(ban)段價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)回(hui)(hui)調。本(ben)周建材(cai)(cai)(cai)除烏魯木(mu)齊平穩外(wai),其(qi)(qi)余市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)均有不(bu)同(tong)程度上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang),其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)過(guo)百的(de)(de)(de)城市(shi)(shi)(shi)有13個之(zhi)多,合(he)肥和(he)天(tian)津(jin)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)更(geng)是達(da)到150元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)。熱軋方面(mian),武(wu)漢、昆明及烏魯木(mu)齊價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)平穩,邯(han)鄲市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)有20元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)的(de)(de)(de)下(xia)跌,其(qi)(qi)余市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)有20-60元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)的(de)(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)。而中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)板(ban)(ban)(ban)方面(mian),上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)海市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)本(ben)周微(wei)降10元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun),成(cheng)都、昆明和(he)烏魯木(mu)齊報價(jia)(jia)平穩,其(qi)(qi)余市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)有20-100元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)的(de)(de)(de)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang),其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)濟南、天(tian)津(jin)、石家(jia)莊(zhuang)和(he)蘭州(zhou)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)為(wei)100元(yuan)/噸(dun)(dun)。本(ben)周螺紋鋼(gang)(gang)主(zhu)力(li)合(he)約(yue)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)81元(yuan),漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)3.57%,熱軋板(ban)(ban)(ban)卷(juan)主(zhu)力(li)合(he)約(yue)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)61元(yuan),漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu)3.57%。期(qi)(qi)間或(huo)(huo)有技(ji)術性回(hui)(hui)調,但304不(bu)銹鋼(gang)(gang)板(ban)(ban)(ban)整體拉漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)態勢(shi)不(bu)變。由于近期(qi)(qi)淡季(ji)需求(qiu)(qiu)不(bu)淡,鋼(gang)(gang)廠利潤再次出(chu)(chu)現(xian)好轉(zhuan),盈利情(qing)(qing)況(kuang)從48.47%上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)升至(zhi)59.51%,使得原本(ben)持續(xu)觀望的(de)(de)(de)鋼(gang)(gang)廠也加(jia)入到復產的(de)(de)(de)陣營(ying)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),預計(ji)7月中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)旬(xun)高(gao)爐開工率預估值(zhi)將(jiang)(jiang)達(da)80.39%。當前雖然對于實體需求(qiu)(qiu)處(chu)于淡季(ji),且南方多地大(da)雨暴(bao)雨遏制需求(qiu)(qiu),但由于資本(ben)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)高(gao)燒(shao)短(duan)期(qi)(qi)難(nan)(nan)退,期(qi)(qi)鋼(gang)(gang)或(huo)(huo)將(jiang)(jiang)維持高(gao)位震蕩(dang)格(ge)(ge)局,故預計(ji)今(jin)日唐山鋼(gang)(gang)坯(pi)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)依(yi)然是易漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)難(nan)(nan)跌。英(ying)國(guo)脫(tuo)歐(ou)后(hou),歐(ou)盟快(kuai)刀斬(zhan)亂(luan)麻,督促英(ying)國(guo)加(jia)快(kuai)脫(tuo)歐(ou)程序談(tan)判。而國(guo)際原油大(da)幅(fu)反彈,歐(ou)美股市(shi)(shi)(shi)也出(chu)(chu)現(xian)暴(bao)跌后(hou)回(hui)(hui)升,倫敦基本(ben)金(jin)屬普遍上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang),中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)央行(xing)(xing)在離岸人(ren)民(min)幣市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)進行(xing)(xing)了(le)干預,人(ren)民(min)幣匯率出(chu)(chu)現(xian)穩定回(hui)(hui)升,這(zhe)些都為(wei)資本(ben)追逐(zhu)商品期(qi)(qi)貨提供了(le)做(zuo)多契機(ji)。當前全(quan)(quan)球貨幣寬松,美國(guo)加(jia)息(xi)落空,全(quan)(quan)球流動(dong)性泛(fan)濫,推升經濟通脹預期(qi)(qi)。在這(zhe)種寬松炒作環(huan)境下(xia),商品大(da)幅(fu)波動(dong)頻率較去(qu)年顯著增加(jia)。從鋼(gang)(gang)材(cai)(cai)(cai)現(xian)貨市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)上(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)(shang)看,今(jin)日螺紋、熱卷(juan)、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)板(ban)(ban)(ban)等(deng)多個品種表現(xian)差(cha)強(qiang)人(ren)意,多數304不(bu)銹鋼(gang)(gang)板(ban)(ban)(ban)維持平穩,局部呈現(xian)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)跌互現(xian)局面(mian)。其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)建材(cai)(cai)(cai)市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)僅在杭(hang)州(zhou)、南京、合(he)肥、南昌、武(wu)漢等(deng)少數市(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)有20-30元(yuan)的(de)(de)(de)漲(zhang)(zhang)(zhang)幅(fu),與期(qi)(qi)貨相比(bi),相差(cha)甚(shen)遠(yuan)。
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